Liverpool 2-0 Newcastle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 26 Feb 2025

Liverpool
2-0 HT 1-0
Newcastle United
📅26/02/2025 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Liverpool vs Newcastle United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.37
Draw
25%
4.62
Away
23%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.63
Over 2.5
59%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.66
No
45%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
5.75
2-3 Goals
41%
2.04
4-5 Goals
26%
2.51
6+ Goals
14%
5.49
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.61
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
17.5
X/1
15%
4.06
X/2
9%
14.9
X/X
9%
8.11
2/1
9%
18.65
2/2
9%
11.15
2/X
5%
19.75
Value flag · 1/X at 17.5 — our 10% vs market 3.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
68%
-16.0pp
25%
Draw
18%
+6.6pp
23%
Away Win
14%
+9.4pp
41%
Under 2.5
34%
+6.7pp
59%
Over 2.5
66%
-6.7pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.4pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Liverpool v Newcastle United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liverpool EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 17%
-1% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +9%
2.39/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.55
+11% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +16%
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
486 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 74%
40.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
23.2 Crosses 16.9
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.5

Liverpool vs Newcastle United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liverpool
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Newcastle United
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.61 xG 1.27
60% Ball Possession 40%
20 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
454 Passes 279
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
39 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.12.2024 Newcastle United Newcastle United 3-3 HT 1-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
01.01.2024 Liverpool Liverpool 4-2 HT 0-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
27.08.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-2 HT 1-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
18.02.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 0-2 HT 0-2 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
31.08.2022 Liverpool Liverpool 2-1 HT 0-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
30.04.2022 Newcastle United Newcastle United 0-1 HT 0-1 Liverpool Liverpool İNP

Liverpool 2-0 Newcastle United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liverpool
2-0
AWAY Newcastle United
1.70 xG 0.23
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 3
3 Shots on Target 0
4 Corners 2
533 Passes 309
90% Pass Accuracy 84%
30 Box Touches 17
4 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Liverpool vs Newcastle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liverpool saw off Newcastle United 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Liverpool as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Liverpool had 61% of the ball to Newcastle United's 39%, shots finished 12-3, expected goals 1.70 to 0.23.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liverpool had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Liverpool and 1.17 for Newcastle United.

What was the final score of Liverpool vs Newcastle United?

Liverpool 2-0 Newcastle United in the England - Premier League on 26/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liverpool vs Newcastle United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Liverpool win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Liverpool 52%, draw 25%, Newcastle United 23%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Liverpool) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Liverpool) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
26 Feb 2025
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