Pena Deportiva 4-1 Penya Independent — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 31 Mar 2024

📅31/03/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
33%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.68
Over 2.5
39%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
17%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
47%
-6.8pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.5pp
33%
Away Win
26%
+7.4pp
61%
Under 2.5
56%
+5.6pp
39%
Over 2.5
44%
-5.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.4pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pena Deportiva EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Penya Independent EU Bookmakers 29%
+4% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
1.25/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.49/0.99
-1% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -48% / +20%
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
346 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pena Deportiva
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Penya Independent
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 10
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 5
18.11.2023 Penya Independent 3-1 HT 1-1 Pena Deportiva Pena Deportiva İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pena Deportiva
4-1
AWAY Penya Independent
55% Ball Possession 45%
9 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Pena Deportiva vs Penya Independent
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pena Deportiva swept aside Penya Independent 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 27% / 33% — and on the day Pena Deportiva made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Pena Deportiva had 55% of the ball to Penya Independent's 45%, shots finished 9-10.

What was the final score of Pena Deportiva vs Penya Independent?

Pena Deportiva 4-1 Penya Independent in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 31/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pena Deportiva vs Penya Independent?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pena Deportiva win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Pena Deportiva 40%, draw 27%, Penya Independent 33%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pena Deportiva) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pena Deportiva) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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