Villanovense 3-1 Mensajero — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 31 Mar 2024

📅31/03/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.76
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
25%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.54
Over 2.5
47%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.16
No
51%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
20%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
53%
-2.1pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.3pp
25%
Away Win
19%
+5.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
61%
-8.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
39%
+8.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
42%
+7.1pp
51%
BTTS No
58%
-7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Villanovense EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Mensajero EU Bookmakers 22%
-6% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -14%
1.39/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/2.03
-11% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -36%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
296 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Villanovense
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Mensajero
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
65% Ball Possession 35%
13 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 1
0 Yellow Cards 5
19.11.2023 Mensajero Mensajero 1-2 HT 0-1 Villanovense Villanovense İS4
20.03.2022 Villanovense Villanovense 1-1 HT 0-0 Mensajero Mensajero İS4
31.10.2021 Mensajero Mensajero 1-0 HT 0-0 Villanovense Villanovense İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Villanovense
3-1
AWAY Mensajero
40% Ball Possession 60%
15 Total Shots 2
7 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Villanovense vs Mensajero
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Villanovense got the better of Mensajero 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Villanovense as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Villanovense had 40% of the ball to Mensajero's 60%, shots finished 15-2.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Villanovense and 1.00 for Mensajero.

What was the final score of Villanovense vs Mensajero?

Villanovense 3-1 Mensajero in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 31/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Villanovense vs Mensajero?

Before kick-off our model rated a Villanovense win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Villanovense 51%, draw 25%, Mensajero 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Villanovense) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Villanovense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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