South Melbourne 4-2 Dandenong City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 31 Mar 2026

📅31/03/2026 · 🕒11:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.66
Draw
19%
3.72
Away
21%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
23%
X/2
5%
X/X
5%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
56%
+4.0pp
19%
Draw
23%
-3.9pp
21%
Away Win
21%
-0.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.1pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME South Melbourne EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Dandenong City EU Bookmakers 24%
+10% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +17%
2.08/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.83
-4% / +50% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +13%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
351 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
16.6 Crosses 16.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME South Melbourne
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Dandenong City
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.44 xG 0.64
40% Ball Possession 60%
16 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 2
144 Passes 292
55% Pass Accuracy 71%
21 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.07.2025 Dandenong City Dandenong City 3-3 HT 1-3 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
31.03.2025 South Melbourne South Melbourne 1-3 HT 1-1 Dandenong City Dandenong City AVNPL
19.07.2024 South Melbourne South Melbourne 1-2 HT 0-1 Dandenong City Dandenong City AVNPL
19.04.2024 Dandenong City Dandenong City 0-4 HT 0-3 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
13.08.2022 South Melbourne South Melbourne 1-0 HT 0-0 Dandenong City Dandenong City AVNPL
07.05.2022 Dandenong City Dandenong City 0-1 HT 0-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
POST-MATCH South Melbourne vs Dandenong City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

South Melbourne got the better of Dandenong City 4-2. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had South Melbourne as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, South Melbourne had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for South Melbourne and 1.33 for Dandenong City.

What was the final score of South Melbourne vs Dandenong City?

South Melbourne 4-2 Dandenong City in the Australia - National Premier League on 31/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for South Melbourne vs Dandenong City?

Before kick-off our model rated a South Melbourne win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split South Melbourne 60%, draw 19%, Dandenong City 21%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (South Melbourne) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (South Melbourne) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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