Progreso 0-1 Danubio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 31 May 2025

📅31/05/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.67
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
42%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.54
Over 2.5
48%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.03
No
50%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
8%
X/2
14%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
20%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
34%
-4.7pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.5pp
42%
Away Win
37%
+5.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
61%
-9.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
39%
+9.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
45%
+4.7pp
50%
BTTS No
55%
-4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Progreso EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Danubio EU Bookmakers 40%
+6% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -4%
1.32/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.13
+13% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -1%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
300 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Progreso
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Danubio
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
23.02.2025 Danubio Danubio 1-1 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
12.10.2024 Progreso Progreso 0-0 HT 0-0 Danubio Danubio URU
06.04.2024 Danubio Danubio 1-1 HT 1-0 Progreso Progreso URU
31.08.2022 Progreso Progreso 2-2 HT 2-0 Danubio Danubio URUK
15.02.2021 Danubio Danubio 0-1 HT 0-1 Progreso Progreso URU
22.08.2020 Progreso Progreso 1-0 HT 1-0 Danubio Danubio URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Progreso
0-1
AWAY Danubio
53% Ball Possession 47%
8 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Progreso vs Danubio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Danubio squeezed past Progreso 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Danubio as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Progreso had 53% of the ball to Danubio's 47%, shots finished 8-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Progreso had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Progreso and 0.67 for Danubio.

What was the final score of Progreso vs Danubio?

Progreso 0-1 Danubio in the Uruguay - Premier League on 31/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Progreso vs Danubio?

Before kick-off our model rated an Danubio win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Progreso 29%, draw 28%, Danubio 42%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Danubio), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Danubio) ✓ Under 2.5
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URU More Uruguay - Premier League
31 May 2025
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