Mornar Bar 2-1 Radnicki 1923 Kragujevac — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 31 Jul 2024

📅31/07/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.75
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
43%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.78
Over 2.5
46%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.88
No
52%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.0
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.88
6+ Goals
9%
17.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.0 — our 29% vs market 27.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
17%
X/X
16%
2/1
4%
2/2
21%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
23%
+6.7pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.4pp
43%
Away Win
53%
-10.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.9pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mornar Bar EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Radnicki 1923 Kragujevac EU Bookmakers 57%
+64% / +64% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+71% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
271 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mornar Bar
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Radnicki 1923 Kragujevac
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
25.07.2024 Radnicki 1923 Kragujevac Radnicki 1923 Kragujevac 1-0 HT 0-0 Mornar Bar Mornar Bar AVKL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mornar Bar
2-1
AWAY Radnicki 1923 Kragujevac
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mornar Bar vs Radnicki 1923 Kragujevac
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mornar Bar nicked a narrow win over Radnicki 1923 Kragujevac 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Radnicki 1923 Kragujevac at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Mornar Bar had 50% of the ball to Radnicki 1923 Kragujevac's 50%, shots finished 11-16.

What was the final score of Mornar Bar vs Radnicki 1923 Kragujevac?

Mornar Bar 2-1 Radnicki 1923 Kragujevac in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 31/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mornar Bar vs Radnicki 1923 Kragujevac?

Before kick-off our model rated an Radnicki 1923 Kragujevac win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Mornar Bar 30%, draw 27%, Radnicki 1923 Kragujevac 43%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Radnicki 1923 Kragujevac) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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