Urawa Red Diamonds 1-4 Newcastle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 31 Jul 2024

📅31/07/2024 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.17
Draw
29%
3.8
Away
38%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
3.46
Over 2.5
50%
1.28
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.32
No
42%
3.08
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
8.79
2-3 Goals
39%
2.4
4-5 Goals
19%
2.36
6+ Goals
18%
3.87
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.73
1/2
10%
18.25
1/X
6%
12.5
X/1
12%
8.55
X/2
11%
5.15
X/X EV+ ✗
19%
7.01
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
17%
2.36
2/X
4%
12.3
Value flag · X/X at 7.01 — our 19% vs market 10.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
28%
+5.1pp
29%
Draw
23%
+6.0pp
38%
Away Win
49%
-11.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
25%
+24.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
75%
-24.6pp
58%
BTTS Yes
72%
-13.2pp
42%
BTTS No
28%
+13.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Urawa Red Diamonds EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Newcastle EU Bookmakers 54%
+57% / +57% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -26% / -26%
4.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.71
+150% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / -25%
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
298 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 456 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.0 Yellow Cards 0.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Urawa Red Diamonds
1-4
AWAY Newcastle
2.22 xG 0.95
46% Ball Possession 54%
7 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 3
260 Passes 389
90% Pass Accuracy 92%
14 Box Touches 20
8 Crosses 2
POST-MATCH Urawa Red Diamonds vs Newcastle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle cruised past Urawa Red Diamonds 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (33% / 29% / 38%) promised a tight game; Newcastle found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Urawa Red Diamonds had 46% of the ball to Newcastle's 54%, shots finished 7-11, expected goals 2.22 to 0.95 — on chances, Urawa Red Diamonds could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of Urawa Red Diamonds vs Newcastle?

Urawa Red Diamonds 1-4 Newcastle in the Friendlies on 31/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Urawa Red Diamonds vs Newcastle?

Before kick-off our model rated an Newcastle win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Urawa Red Diamonds 33%, draw 29%, Newcastle 38%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Newcastle), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Newcastle) ✓ BTTS Yes
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