FC Akhmat Grozny 4-1 Pari Nizhny Novgorod — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Cup, 31 Jul 2024

📅31/07/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.64
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
20%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.9
Over 2.5
45%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.29
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.58
6+ Goals
10%
14.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.29 — our 31% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
22%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
12%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
57%
-4.5pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.5pp
20%
Away Win
19%
+1.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
49%
+6.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
51%
-6.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.2pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Pari Nizhny Novgorod EU Bookmakers 22%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
2.14/0.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.93/3.40
+24% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +146% / -48%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
350 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Pari Nizhny Novgorod
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.27 xG 0.91
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
312 Passes 251
74% Pass Accuracy 71%
27 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
28.04.2024 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 5-1 HT 2-1 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod RUS
14.08.2023 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod 2-0 HT 2-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
11.11.2022 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod 3-2 HT 1-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
10.09.2022 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 1-3 HT 0-1 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod RUS
07.05.2022 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
07.11.2021 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 3-1 HT 1-0 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod RUS
POST-MATCH FC Akhmat Grozny vs Pari Nizhny Novgorod
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Akhmat Grozny ran out comfortable winners over Pari Nizhny Novgorod 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had FC Akhmat Grozny as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for FC Akhmat Grozny and 1.67 for Pari Nizhny Novgorod.

What was the final score of FC Akhmat Grozny vs Pari Nizhny Novgorod?

FC Akhmat Grozny 4-1 Pari Nizhny Novgorod in the Russia - Cup on 31/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Akhmat Grozny vs Pari Nizhny Novgorod?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Akhmat Grozny win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split FC Akhmat Grozny 52%, draw 27%, Pari Nizhny Novgorod 20%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Akhmat Grozny) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Akhmat Grozny) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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