Manchester United 4-1 Bournemouth — Result, Statistics & Match Review — HAZPL, 31 Jul 2025

📅31/07/2025 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.27
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
36%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.18
Over 2.5
54%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.53
No
48%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.44
2-3 Goals
42%
1.92
4-5 Goals
25%
2.98
6+ Goals
11%
8.79
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
3.36
1/2 EV+ ✗
6%
25.5
1/X
6%
12.55
X/1
9%
5.69
X/2
15%
6.18
X/X
12%
5.39
2/1
5%
23.95
2/2
15%
3.82
2/X
7%
12.65
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.5 — our 6% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
40%
-0.6pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.6pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+1.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
42%
+4.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
58%
-4.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
61%
-9.7pp
48%
BTTS No
39%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Manchester United EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Bournemouth EU Bookmakers 38%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +42% / +42%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +38% /
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
343 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.0
Crosses 11.0
Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Manchester United
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Bournemouth
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.81 xG 1.14
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
472 Passes 277
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
41 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 3
27.04.2025 Bournemouth Bournemouth 1-1 HT 1-0 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
22.12.2024 Manchester United Manchester United 0-3 HT 0-1 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
13.04.2024 Bournemouth Bournemouth 2-2 HT 2-1 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
09.12.2023 Manchester United Manchester United 0-3 HT 0-1 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
20.05.2023 Bournemouth Bournemouth 0-1 HT 0-1 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
03.01.2023 Manchester United Manchester United 3-0 HT 1-0 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Manchester United
4-1
AWAY Bournemouth
1.40 xG 1.71
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
385 Passes 292
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 24
8 Crosses 9
POST-MATCH Manchester United vs Bournemouth
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Manchester United swept aside Bournemouth 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (39% / 25% / 36%) promised a tight game; Manchester United found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Manchester United had 55% of the ball to Bournemouth's 45%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 1.40 to 1.71.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Manchester United and 1.50 for Bournemouth.

What was the final score of Manchester United vs Bournemouth?

Manchester United 4-1 Bournemouth in the HAZPL on 31/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Manchester United vs Bournemouth?

Before kick-off our model rated a Manchester United win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Manchester United 39%, draw 25%, Bournemouth 36%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Manchester United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Manchester United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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