Motor Lublin 1-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 31 Jul 2026

📅31/07/2026 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.57
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
42%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.21
Over 2.5
57%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.49
No
40%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.78
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
26%
2.93
6+ Goals
12%
9.32
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.17
1/2
7%
23.95
1/X
7%
12.5
X/1
9%
6.46
X/2
14%
5.41
X/X
10%
5.01
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
28.0
2/2
22%
3.18
2/X
7%
12.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.0 — our 10% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
35%
-1.8pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.9pp
42%
Away Win
39%
+3.6pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+1.2pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-1.2pp
60%
BTTS Yes
63%
-2.8pp
40%
BTTS No
37%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motor Lublin EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 43%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -9%
1.44/1.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.57
+16% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +2%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
296 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 81%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.8
22.6 Crosses 15.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motor Lublin
0W-1D-3L
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.33 xG 1.74
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
303 Passes 368
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 32
21 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
07.02.2026 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 4-1 HT 1-1 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin POL
14.12.2025 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 1-1 HT 1-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
16.02.2025 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-0 HT 1-0 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin POL
25.09.2024 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 0-2 HT 0-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Motor Lublin
1-2
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
2.01 xG 0.89
21 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
379 Passes 448
31 Box Touches 22
31 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Bialystok
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jagiellonia Bialystok squeezed past Motor Lublin 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Jagiellonia Bialystok as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, shots finished 21-13, expected goals 2.01 to 0.89 — on chances, Motor Lublin could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Jagiellonia Bialystok led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Motor Lublin and 2.50 for Jagiellonia Bialystok.

What was the final score of Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Motor Lublin 1-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 31/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Before kick-off our model rated an Jagiellonia Bialystok win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Motor Lublin 33%, draw 24%, Jagiellonia Bialystok 42%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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