Jagiellonia Bialystok 4-1 Motor Lublin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 7 Feb 2026

📅07/02/2026 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.82
Draw
21%
3.54
Away
26%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.07
Over 2.5
54%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.66
No
42%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
17%
X/2
7%
X/X
6%
2/1
10%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
51%
+2.2pp
21%
Draw
25%
-3.6pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+1.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.3pp
58%
BTTS Yes
56%
+1.5pp
42%
BTTS No
44%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Motor Lublin EU Bookmakers 28%
+6% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
1.90/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.54
+42% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -13%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
359 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 80%
31.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.2
21.9 Crosses 21.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Motor Lublin
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.32 xG 1.18
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
375 Passes 312
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 1
14.12.2025 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 1-1 HT 1-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
16.02.2025 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-0 HT 1-0 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin POL
25.09.2024 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 0-2 HT 0-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
4-1
AWAY Motor Lublin
3.00 xG 1.79
54% Ball Possession 46%
23 Total Shots 13
12 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 7
345 Passes 274
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
43 Box Touches 22
23 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Motor Lublin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jagiellonia Bialystok ran out comfortable winners over Motor Lublin 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Jagiellonia Bialystok as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Jagiellonia Bialystok had 54% of the ball to Motor Lublin's 46%, shots finished 23-13, expected goals 3.00 to 1.79.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Jagiellonia Bialystok had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Jagiellonia Bialystok and 0.33 for Motor Lublin.

What was the final score of Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Motor Lublin?

Jagiellonia Bialystok 4-1 Motor Lublin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 07/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Motor Lublin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Jagiellonia Bialystok win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Jagiellonia Bialystok 53%, draw 21%, Motor Lublin 26%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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