Southport 3-2 Buxton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 31 Aug 2024

📅31/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
44%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under
49%
1.9
Over
51%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
54%
1.73
No
46%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1
25%
3.31
2-3
37%
1.78
4-5
27%
3.56
6+
11%
14.2
Value flag · 4-5 at 3.56 — our 27% vs market 22.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
10%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
17%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
17%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
30%
Home Win
42%
-11.8pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.1pp
44%
Away Win
33%
+10.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
49%
+0.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
51%
-0.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
54%
+0.2pp
46%
BTTS No
46%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Southport The Market 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Buxton The Market 37%
-18% / -35% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -3%
0.87/1.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.14
-39% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +16%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
276 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Southport
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Buxton
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
23.03.2024 Southport Southport 2-2 HT 1-1 Buxton Buxton İCON
25.11.2023 Buxton Buxton 0-1 HT 0-1 Southport Southport İCON
18.02.2023 Buxton Buxton 1-0 HT 0-0 Southport Southport İCON
29.10.2022 Southport Southport 1-4 HT 0-1 Buxton Buxton İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Southport
3-2
AWAY Buxton
45% Ball Possession 55%
6 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 5
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Southport vs Buxton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Southport edged past Buxton 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Buxton at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Southport had 45% of the ball to Buxton's 55%, shots finished 6-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Buxton led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Southport and 1.75 for Buxton.

What was the final score of Southport vs Buxton?

Southport 3-2 Buxton in the England - Conference on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Southport vs Buxton?

Before kick-off our model rated an Buxton win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Southport 30%, draw 26%, Buxton 44%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Buxton) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Buxton) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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