Crawley Town 0-3 Barnsley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 31 Aug 2024

📅31/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.99
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
40%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.15
Over 2.5
51%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.6
No
49%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.17
2-3 Goals
38%
1.86
4-5 Goals
25%
3.04
6+ Goals
11%
9.52
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.17 — our 26% vs market 19.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.76
1/2
7%
23.15
1/X
9%
13.3
X/1
12%
7.07
X/2
12%
4.78
X/X
9%
5.27
2/1
5%
31.5
2/2
21%
2.75
2/X
7%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
30%
+4.8pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.7pp
40%
Away Win
45%
-5.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
43%
+6.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
57%
-6.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.6pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crawley Town EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Barnsley EU Bookmakers 49%
+5% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +13%
1.19/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.92/1.13
-1% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -6%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
304 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
Crosses 17.8
Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crawley Town
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Barnsley
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
14.02.2015 Crawley Town Crawley Town 5-1 HT 1-0 Barnsley Barnsley İN1
09.08.2014 Barnsley Barnsley 0-1 HT 0-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crawley Town
0-3
AWAY Barnsley
0.19 xG 3.53
69% Ball Possession 31%
6 Total Shots 15
1 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 9
380 Passes 126
77% Pass Accuracy 59%
15 Box Touches 22
11 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Crawley Town vs Barnsley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barnsley ran out comfortable winners over Crawley Town 3-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (35% / 26% / 40%) promised a tight game; Barnsley found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Crawley Town had 69% of the ball to Barnsley's 31%, shots finished 6-15, expected goals 0.19 to 3.53.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Crawley Town had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Crawley Town and 0.50 for Barnsley.

What was the final score of Crawley Town vs Barnsley?

Crawley Town 0-3 Barnsley in the England - 1st Division on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crawley Town vs Barnsley?

Before kick-off our model rated an Barnsley win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Crawley Town 35%, draw 26%, Barnsley 40%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barnsley), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Barnsley) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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