Astoria Walldorf 3-2 Mainz 05 II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 31 Aug 2024

📅31/08/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.57
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
39%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.18
Over 2.5
58%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.55
No
48%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
14%
X/X
6%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
35%
+2.2pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.4pp
39%
Away Win
41%
-1.8pp
42%
Under 2.5
42%
-0.1pp
58%
Over 2.5
58%
+0.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.9pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Astoria Walldorf EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Mainz 05 II EU Bookmakers 45%
-1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -11%
1.33/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.43
-10% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -4%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
295 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 433 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Astoria Walldorf
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Mainz 05 II
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
20.04.2024 Astoria Walldorf Astoria Walldorf 4-1 HT 3-0 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
14.10.2023 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 1-2 HT 0-0 Astoria Walldorf Astoria Walldorf ALMBÖL
20.05.2023 Astoria Walldorf Astoria Walldorf 0-1 HT 0-0 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
12.11.2022 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 1-2 HT 1-1 Astoria Walldorf Astoria Walldorf ALMBÖL
10.04.2022 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 6-0 HT 4-0 Astoria Walldorf Astoria Walldorf ALMBÖL
23.10.2021 Astoria Walldorf Astoria Walldorf 0-2 HT 0-1 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH Astoria Walldorf vs Mainz 05 II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Astoria Walldorf edged past Mainz 05 II 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (37% / 24% / 39%) promised a tight game; Astoria Walldorf found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Astoria Walldorf and 2.00 for Mainz 05 II.

What was the final score of Astoria Walldorf vs Mainz 05 II?

Astoria Walldorf 3-2 Mainz 05 II in the Germany - Regional League on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Astoria Walldorf vs Mainz 05 II?

Before kick-off our model rated an Mainz 05 II win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Astoria Walldorf 37%, draw 24%, Mainz 05 II 39%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Mainz 05 II) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Mainz 05 II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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