SGV Freiberg 1-3 Hoffenheim II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 31 Aug 2024

📅31/08/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.99
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
41%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.15
Over 2.5
49%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.6
No
52%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
47%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
30%
+3.3pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.1pp
41%
Away Win
46%
-5.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
43%
+8.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
57%
-8.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.0pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME SGV Freiberg EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Hoffenheim II EU Bookmakers 50%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +14%
1.78/1.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.02
+31% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +26%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
244 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 392 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME SGV Freiberg
1W-0D-3L
AWAY Hoffenheim II
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 3.50
36% Ball Possession 64%
7 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 0
25.11.2023 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 3-1 HT 1-1 Hoffenheim II Hoffenheim II ALMBÖL
13.08.2023 Hoffenheim II Hoffenheim II 3-1 HT 1-1 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
06.05.2023 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 0-6 HT 0-1 Hoffenheim II Hoffenheim II ALMBÖL
28.10.2022 Hoffenheim II Hoffenheim II 4-1 HT 2-0 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH SGV Freiberg vs Hoffenheim II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hoffenheim II beat SGV Freiberg 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Hoffenheim II as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Hoffenheim II led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for SGV Freiberg and 3.50 for Hoffenheim II.

What was the final score of SGV Freiberg vs Hoffenheim II?

SGV Freiberg 1-3 Hoffenheim II in the Germany - Regional League on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for SGV Freiberg vs Hoffenheim II?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hoffenheim II win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split SGV Freiberg 33%, draw 26%, Hoffenheim II 41%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hoffenheim II) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hoffenheim II) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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