AGF Aarhus 4-2 FC Nordsjaelland — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 31 Aug 2024

📅31/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.27
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
35%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.0
Over 2.5
53%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.63
No
44%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.73
2-3 Goals
35%
1.82
4-5 Goals
28%
3.26
6+ Goals
12%
11.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.33
1/2
10%
28.5
1/X
7%
13.1
X/1
17%
5.24
X/2
10%
5.91
X/X
10%
4.99
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
15%
3.94
2/X
7%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
40%
+0.6pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.2pp
35%
Away Win
34%
+1.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
46%
+0.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
54%
-0.4pp
56%
BTTS Yes
57%
-1.6pp
44%
BTTS No
43%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Nordsjaelland EU Bookmakers 37%
-4% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -13%
1.58/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/1.52
+8% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -6%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
306 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 383 · 78%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.1
21.9 Crosses 15.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AGF Aarhus
2W-1D-3L
AWAY FC Nordsjaelland
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.89 xG 1.49
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
287 Passes 429
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 26
24 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
03.05.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-3 HT 0-2 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland DAN
22.04.2024 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 7-2 HT 3-1 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
11.04.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland DAK
29.03.2024 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 2-3 HT 1-2 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAK
26.11.2023 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 0-0 HT 0-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
31.07.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-3 HT 1-1 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland DAN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AGF Aarhus
4-2
AWAY FC Nordsjaelland
1.05 xG 1.15
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
332 Passes 457
84% Pass Accuracy 88%
17 Box Touches 15
30 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH AGF Aarhus vs FC Nordsjaelland
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AGF Aarhus got the better of FC Nordsjaelland 4-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had AGF Aarhus as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, AGF Aarhus had 44% of the ball to FC Nordsjaelland's 56%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 1.05 to 1.15.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Nordsjaelland led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for AGF Aarhus and 2.50 for FC Nordsjaelland.

What was the final score of AGF Aarhus vs FC Nordsjaelland?

AGF Aarhus 4-2 FC Nordsjaelland in the Denmark - Süperlig on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AGF Aarhus vs FC Nordsjaelland?

Before kick-off our model rated a AGF Aarhus win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split AGF Aarhus 41%, draw 24%, FC Nordsjaelland 35%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AGF Aarhus), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AGF Aarhus) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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