Atletico Nacional 1-0 Envigado — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 31 Aug 2025

📅31/08/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
69%
1.3
Draw
18%
4.81
Away
13%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.95
Over 2.5
51%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.4
No
52%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1/2
3%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
5%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
5%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
69%
Home Win
73%
-4.1pp
18%
Draw
18%
+0.5pp
13%
Away Win
10%
+3.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
38%
+10.3pp
52%
BTTS No
62%
-10.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Envigado EU Bookmakers 12%
-2% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +26%
1.62/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/1.38
+24% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +3%
62% Ball Possession 38%
18 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
427 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 235 · 74%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.6
18.1 Crosses 10.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Nacional
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Envigado
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.19 xG 0.46
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 5
330 Passes 259
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 8
19 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 4
15.03.2025 Envigado Envigado 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
15.10.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 2-1 Envigado Envigado KOL
30.03.2024 Envigado Envigado 0-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
01.10.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 3-0 HT 1-0 Envigado Envigado KOL
24.04.2023 Envigado Envigado 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
02.09.2022 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-1 HT 1-0 Envigado Envigado KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Nacional
1-0
AWAY Envigado
1.19 xG 0.42
79% Ball Possession 21%
26 Total Shots 6
9 Shots on Target 2
13 Corners 5
494 Passes 91
92% Pass Accuracy 66%
35 Box Touches 6
30 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Atletico Nacional vs Envigado
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Nacional nicked a narrow win over Envigado 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Atletico Nacional as the likeliest winner at 69%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Atletico Nacional had 79% of the ball to Envigado's 21%, shots finished 26-6, expected goals 1.19 to 0.42.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Nacional had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Atletico Nacional and 0.33 for Envigado.

What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Envigado?

Atletico Nacional 1-0 Envigado in the Colombia - Primera on 31/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Nacional vs Envigado?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split Atletico Nacional 69%, draw 18%, Envigado 13%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Nacional), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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