Penybont 2-2 Cardiff MU — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 31 Dec 2024

📅31/12/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.61
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
21%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.21
Over 2.5
46%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.66
No
54%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.22
2-3 Goals
43%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
2.78
6+ Goals
9%
8.02
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.22 — our 26% vs market 17.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
5%
X/X
7%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
58%
-3.4pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.2pp
22%
Away Win
19%
+2.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
41%
+12.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
59%
-12.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-10.7pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+10.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penybont EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Cardiff MU EU Bookmakers 22%
-3% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +11%
1.94/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/1.03
-1% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / +58%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
394 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penybont
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Cardiff MU
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
18.10.2024 Penybont Penybont 0-1 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GALWK
15.10.2024 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 1-1 HT 0-1 Penybont Penybont GAL
26.12.2023 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 0-3 HT 0-2 Penybont Penybont GAL
29.08.2023 Penybont Penybont 0-0 HT 0-0 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
31.03.2023 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 2-3 HT 1-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
17.02.2023 Penybont Penybont 2-1 HT 1-0 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Penybont
2-2
AWAY Cardiff MU
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 8
1 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Penybont vs Cardiff MU
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penybont and Cardiff MU shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

This one beat our numbers. Penybont carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Penybont had 50% of the ball to Cardiff MU's 50%, shots finished 10-16.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Penybont had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Penybont and 0.83 for Cardiff MU.

What was the final score of Penybont vs Cardiff MU?

Penybont 2-2 Cardiff MU in the Wales - Premier League on 31/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penybont vs Cardiff MU?

Before kick-off our model rated a Penybont win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Penybont 55%, draw 24%, Cardiff MU 22%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Penybont) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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