Carlisle United vs Swindon Town Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Carlisle United v Swindon Town — Team-Based Signals
Carlisle United vs Swindon Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-2
HT 0-0
Carlisle United
İN2
1-1
HT 1-1
Swindon Town
İN2
0-3
HT 0-1
Swindon Town
İN2
1-2
HT 1-2
Carlisle United
İN2
1-1
HT 0-1
Swindon Town
İN2
Carlisle United 1-5 Swindon Town — Actual Match Statistics
Swindon Town swept aside Carlisle United 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match split (40% / 30% / 30%) promised a tight game; Swindon Town found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Carlisle United had 58% of the ball to Swindon Town's 42%, shots finished 16-14, expected goals 1.63 to 2.40.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Carlisle United had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Carlisle United and 1.17 for Swindon Town.
What was the final score of Carlisle United vs Swindon Town?
Carlisle United 1-5 Swindon Town in the England - 2nd Division on 01/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Carlisle United vs Swindon Town?
Before kick-off our model rated a Carlisle United win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Carlisle United 40%, draw 30%, Swindon Town 30%. The final score 1-5 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.