Gillingham 1-2 Notts County — Result, Stats & Model Review (England - 2nd Division, 1 Feb 2025)

Gillingham

1-2 HT 0-2

Notts County

📅01/02/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3

Top 2 Score Predictions

1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗

England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Gillingham vs Notts County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions

Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend

⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.

Match Result

Home

29%

3.29

Draw

26%

3.35

Away

45%

1.96

Under/Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57%

1.74

Over 2.5

43%

2.0

Both Teams to Score

Yes

46%

1.88

54%

1.82

Total Goals

0-1 Goal EV+ ✗

32%

2.73

2-3 Goals

38%

1.72

4-5 Goals

21%

3.83

6+ Goals

17.55

Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.73 — our 32% vs market 29.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.

Half Time / Full Time

1/1

11%

5.68

1/2

10%

26.0

1/X

15.15

X/1

11%

7.13

X/2

17%

4.42

X/X

11%

4.55

2/1

34.5

2/2

18%

2.76

2/X

14.25

PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine

Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline

✋

Decision

No Bet — Skip This Match

The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.

Model vs Market — where we differ

iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers

29%

Home Win

27%

+2.5pp

26%

Draw

26%

-0.5pp

45%

Away Win

47%

-1.9pp

57%

Under 2.5

54%

+3.3pp

43%

Over 2.5

46%

-3.3pp

46%

BTTS Yes

49%

-3.2pp

54%

BTTS No

51%

+3.2pp

gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Gillingham v Notts County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine

iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals

HOME Gillingham EU Bookmakers 30%

Head to Head

AWAY Notts County EU Bookmakers 51%

+13% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -28%

0.96/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.83/1.45

-41% / +85% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -45%

47% Ball Possession 53%

10 Total Shots 11

3 Shots on Target 4

4 Corners 5

217 · 64% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 71%

18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6

18.6 Crosses 22.0

1.5 Yellow Cards 2.4

Gillingham vs Notts County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings

Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings

HOME Gillingham

3W-0D-3L

AWAY Notts County

1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33

1.35 xG 1.18

39% Ball Possession 61%

14 Total Shots 12

5 Shots on Target 6

4 Corners 5

207 Passes 584

76% Pass Accuracy 92%

20 Box Touches 20

16 Crosses 30

2 Yellow Cards 3

The Meetings

21.09.2024 Notts County

0-1 HT 0-1

Gillingham İN2

09.02.2024 Notts County

1-3 HT 1-2

Gillingham İN2

21.10.2023 Gillingham

1-2 HT 0-1

Notts County İN2

03.05.2015 Gillingham

3-1 HT 0-0

Notts County İN1

04.10.2014 Notts County

1-0 HT 1-0

Gillingham İN1

07.12.2013 Notts County

3-1 HT 1-0

Gillingham İN1

Gillingham 1-2 Notts County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result

Real recorded figures from this match

HOME Gillingham

1-2

AWAY Notts County

1.27 xG 1.40

45% Ball Possession 55%

15 Total Shots 10

4 Shots on Target 3

2 Corners 4

264 Passes 324

74% Pass Accuracy 73%

21 Box Touches 14

15 Crosses 19

5 Yellow Cards 4

POST-MATCH Gillingham vs Notts County

iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Notts County squeezed past Gillingham 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As we said in the preview, our model had Notts County as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gillingham had 45% of the ball to Notts County's 55%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 1.27 to 1.40.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Gillingham and 1.33 for Notts County.

What was the final score of Gillingham vs Notts County?

Gillingham 1-2 Notts County in the England - 2nd Division on 01/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gillingham vs Notts County?

Before kick-off our model rated an Notts County win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Gillingham 29%, draw 26%, Notts County 45%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Notts County) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Notts County) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No

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