Modena 3-1 Mantova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 1 Feb 2025

📅01/02/2025 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.86
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
26%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.04
2-3 Goals
43%
1.75
4-5 Goals
23%
3.61
6+ Goals
8%
15.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.48
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.3
X/1
9%
4.43
X/2
11%
8.32
X/X
13%
4.59
2/1
6%
24.7
2/2
10%
6.58
2/X
8%
14.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Modena win — 45%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
50%
-4.9pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.1pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.2pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Modena EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Mantova EU Bookmakers 27%
-1% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
1.11/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.30
-12% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -10%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
312 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 382 · 82%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
19.7 Crosses 13.3
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Modena
1W-5D-0L
AWAY Mantova
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.56 xG 1.12
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
228 Passes 434
77% Pass Accuracy 87%
18 Box Touches 27
18 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.11.2024 Mantova Mantova 0-0 HT 0-0 Modena Modena İTB
14.03.2021 Modena Modena 1-1 HT 1-0 Mantova Mantova İTC
16.11.2020 Mantova Mantova 0-0 HT 0-0 Modena Modena İTC
08.05.2010 Mantova Mantova 1-1 HT 0-1 Modena Modena İTB
12.12.2009 Modena Modena 1-1 HT 1-0 Mantova Mantova İTB
09.05.2009 Modena Modena 1-0 HT 0-0 Mantova Mantova İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Modena
3-1
AWAY Mantova
1.67 xG 1.48
28% Ball Possession 72%
8 Total Shots 26
6 Shots on Target 8
1 Corners 5
172 Passes 522
73% Pass Accuracy 88%
19 Box Touches 26
7 Crosses 24
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Modena vs Mantova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Modena beat Mantova 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Modena as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Modena had 28% of the ball to Mantova's 72%, shots finished 8-26, expected goals 1.67 to 1.48.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Modena had the better of it with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Modena and 0.50 for Mantova.

What was the final score of Modena vs Mantova?

Modena 3-1 Mantova in the Italy - Serie B on 01/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Modena vs Mantova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Modena win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Modena 45%, draw 29%, Mantova 26%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Modena), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Modena) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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