NK Varazdin 1-0 Rijeka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 1 Feb 2025

📅01/02/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.29
Draw
23%
2.94
Away
42%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.48
Over 2.5
47%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.16
No
54%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.07
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
5.41
6+ Goals
6%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
3%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
7%
2/1
10%
2/2
28%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
27%
+8.6pp
22%
Draw
30%
-7.7pp
42%
Away Win
43%
-1.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
64%
-11.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
36%
+11.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
42%
+3.5pp
54%
BTTS No
58%
-3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Rijeka EU Bookmakers 48%
-1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / -2%
1.51/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.00
+22% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +3%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
212 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 79%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
19.8 Crosses 17.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NK Varazdin
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Rijeka
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.75 xG 1.10
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
269 Passes 347
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
10 Box Touches 21
11 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.10.2024 Rijeka Rijeka 1-1 HT 1-1 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
11.08.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-0 HT 0-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
11.05.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 3-1 HT 2-1 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
03.03.2024 Rijeka Rijeka 2-0 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
25.11.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-2 HT 0-1 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
03.09.2023 Rijeka Rijeka 2-2 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NK Varazdin
1-0
AWAY Rijeka
1.39 xG 0.43
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Target 1
1 Corners 3
297 Passes 245
74% Pass Accuracy 67%
10 Box Touches 21
10 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH NK Varazdin vs Rijeka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NK Varazdin nicked a narrow win over Rijeka 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Rijeka at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, NK Varazdin had 52% of the ball to Rijeka's 48%, shots finished 10-9, expected goals 1.39 to 0.43.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rijeka led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for NK Varazdin and 1.33 for Rijeka.

What was the final score of NK Varazdin vs Rijeka?

NK Varazdin 1-0 Rijeka in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 01/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NK Varazdin vs Rijeka?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rijeka win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split NK Varazdin 35%, draw 22%, Rijeka 42%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Rijeka) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rijeka) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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