ADO Den Haag 2-1 Ajax II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 1 Mar 2024

📅01/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.3
Draw
23%
5.15
Away
23%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
3.68
Over 2.5
60%
1.25
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.53
No
43%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
9.26
2-3 Goals
39%
2.46
4-5 Goals
26%
2.34
6+ Goals
15%
3.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.49
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
20.8
X/1
19%
3.73
X/2
7%
19.05
X/X
13%
9.0
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
19.6
2/2
10%
12.8
2/X
5%
20.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.6 — our 8% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
72%
-18.2pp
23%
Draw
16%
+6.6pp
23%
Away Win
12%
+11.6pp
40%
Under 2.5
24%
+16.8pp
60%
Over 2.5
76%
-16.8pp
57%
BTTS Yes
61%
-4.2pp
43%
BTTS No
39%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ADO Den Haag EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax II EU Bookmakers 15%
-10% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +3%
1.79/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/2.16
+6% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +0%
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
333 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 77%
31.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
26.9 Crosses 11.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ADO Den Haag
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Ajax II
2.20 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.43 xG 1.64
39% Ball Possession 61%
15 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 3
246 Passes 467
73% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Box Touches 26
22 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
23.10.2023 Ajax II Ajax II 0-0 HT 0-0 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
08.05.2023 Ajax II Ajax II 4-2 HT 2-0 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
28.08.2022 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 4-0 HT 2-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
07.03.2022 Ajax II Ajax II 6-3 HT 3-1 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
08.08.2021 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 2-0 HT 0-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ADO Den Haag
2-1
AWAY Ajax II
0.73 xG 1.18
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
282 Passes 438
74% Pass Accuracy 88%
19 Box Touches 17
25 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH ADO Den Haag vs Ajax II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ADO Den Haag squeezed past Ajax II 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had ADO Den Haag as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, ADO Den Haag had 44% of the ball to Ajax II's 56%, shots finished 9-15, expected goals 0.73 to 1.18 — the balance of chances actually favoured Ajax II.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.20 goals for ADO Den Haag and 2.00 for Ajax II.

What was the final score of ADO Den Haag vs Ajax II?

ADO Den Haag 2-1 Ajax II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 01/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ADO Den Haag vs Ajax II?

Before kick-off our model rated a ADO Den Haag win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split ADO Den Haag 54%, draw 23%, Ajax II 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (ADO Den Haag), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (ADO Den Haag) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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