De Graafschap 2-1 FC Oss — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 1 Mar 2024

📅01/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.43
Draw
23%
4.49
Away
20%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.51
Over 2.5
54%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.66
No
54%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
5.35
2-3 Goals
39%
1.99
4-5 Goals
24%
2.68
6+ Goals
11%
6.62
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.72
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
17.6
X/1
16%
3.77
X/2
6%
13.55
X/X
10%
7.31
2/1
7%
19.75
2/2
9%
9.56
2/X
8%
17.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
65%
-8.8pp
23%
Draw
19%
+4.1pp
20%
Away Win
16%
+4.8pp
46%
Under 2.5
36%
+9.9pp
54%
Over 2.5
64%
-9.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-10.4pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+10.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Oss EU Bookmakers 19%
-4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -1%
1.87/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.44
-15% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / +17%
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
371 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 72%
31.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
26.1 Crosses 17.4
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME De Graafschap
4W-1D-1L
AWAY FC Oss
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.67 xG 1.26
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
419 Passes 280
82% Pass Accuracy 73%
25 Box Touches 16
25 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
01.12.2023 FC Oss FC Oss 0-1 HT 0-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
14.04.2023 FC Oss FC Oss 3-3 HT 1-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
28.10.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-0 HT 1-0 FC Oss FC Oss HOL2
15.04.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-2 HT 1-1 FC Oss FC Oss HOL2
01.10.2021 FC Oss FC Oss 0-3 HT 0-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
29.01.2021 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-1 HT 1-0 FC Oss FC Oss HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME De Graafschap
2-1
AWAY FC Oss
2.44 xG 0.61
65% Ball Possession 35%
18 Total Shots 6
9 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 3
393 Passes 165
80% Pass Accuracy 61%
28 Box Touches 9
31 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH De Graafschap vs FC Oss
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

De Graafschap squeezed past FC Oss 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had De Graafschap as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, De Graafschap had 65% of the ball to FC Oss's 35%, shots finished 18-6, expected goals 2.44 to 0.61 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold De Graafschap's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, De Graafschap had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for De Graafschap and 1.00 for FC Oss.

What was the final score of De Graafschap vs FC Oss?

De Graafschap 2-1 FC Oss in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 01/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for De Graafschap vs FC Oss?

Before kick-off our model rated a De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split De Graafschap 57%, draw 23%, FC Oss 20%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (De Graafschap), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (De Graafschap) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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