NAC Breda 3-1 Utrecht II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 1 Mar 2024

📅01/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.43
Draw
24%
4.34
Away
20%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.23
Over 2.5
49%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.76
No
53%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.49
2-3 Goals
40%
1.9
4-5 Goals
24%
2.91
6+ Goals
10%
8.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.49 — our 26% vs market 17.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.65
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
10%
19.2
X/1
17%
3.58
X/2
5%
15.1
X/X
7%
7.02
2/1
7%
21.35
2/2
9%
11.55
2/X
7%
19.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
66%
-9.5pp
24%
Draw
20%
+4.0pp
20%
Away Win
15%
+5.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
41%
+10.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
59%
-10.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.5pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Utrecht II EU Bookmakers 18%
+2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -10%
1.59/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.58
+0% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -6%
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
392 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 76%
28.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
22.9 Crosses 14.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NAC Breda
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Utrecht II
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.34 xG 1.35
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
400 Passes 281
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
27 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.10.2023 Utrecht II Utrecht II 1-1 HT 1-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
20.02.2023 Utrecht II Utrecht II 4-1 HT 2-1 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
16.09.2022 NAC Breda NAC Breda 3-1 HT 1-1 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
04.04.2022 Utrecht II Utrecht II 1-0 HT 0-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
19.11.2021 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-1 HT 0-0 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
09.04.2021 NAC Breda NAC Breda 3-1 HT 1-0 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NAC Breda
3-1
AWAY Utrecht II
1.55 xG 1.07
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
438 Passes 317
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
31 Box Touches 8
16 Crosses 11
POST-MATCH NAC Breda vs Utrecht II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NAC Breda saw off Utrecht II 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had NAC Breda as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, NAC Breda had 57% of the ball to Utrecht II's 43%, shots finished 18-7, expected goals 1.55 to 1.07.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for NAC Breda and 1.50 for Utrecht II.

What was the final score of NAC Breda vs Utrecht II?

NAC Breda 3-1 Utrecht II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 01/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NAC Breda vs Utrecht II?

Before kick-off our model rated a NAC Breda win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split NAC Breda 56%, draw 24%, Utrecht II 20%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NAC Breda) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (NAC Breda) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL2 More Netherlands - Eerste Divisie
1 Mar 2024
22:00 FC Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar II Analysis →
22:00 Helmond Sport vs VVV-Venlo Analysis →
22:00 Emmen vs Willem II Analysis →
22:00 Telstar vs Roda Analysis →
22:00 De Graafschap vs FC Oss Analysis →
22:00 ADO Den Haag vs Ajax II Analysis →