Lusitania FC Lourosa 2-1 Amarante — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 1 Mar 2025

📅01/03/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.76
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
32%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.68
Over 2.5
40%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.96
No
58%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
11%
X/1
14%
X/2
18%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
53%
-12.4pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.3pp
32%
Away Win
22%
+10.1pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.6pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.6pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.7pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Amarante EU Bookmakers 25%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +19%
2.16/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.73/1.04
+48% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +81% / +31%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
307 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 234 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Amarante
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
04.01.2025 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa 1-0 HT 0-0 Amarante Amarante POR3
14.09.2024 Amarante Amarante 1-0 HT 0-0 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa
2-1
AWAY Amarante
54% Ball Possession 46%
8 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Amarante
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lusitania FC Lourosa squeezed past Amarante 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (40% / 28% / 32%) promised a tight game; Lusitania FC Lourosa found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lusitania FC Lourosa had 54% of the ball to Amarante's 46%, shots finished 8-5.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Lusitania FC Lourosa and 0.50 for Amarante.

What was the final score of Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Amarante?

Lusitania FC Lourosa 2-1 Amarante in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 01/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Amarante?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lusitania FC Lourosa win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Lusitania FC Lourosa 40%, draw 28%, Amarante 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lusitania FC Lourosa) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lusitania FC Lourosa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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