Academica 2-1 Sporting Covilha — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 1 Mar 2025

📅01/03/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.76
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
30%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.74
Over 2.5
44%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.95
No
56%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
53%
-8.3pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.4pp
29%
Away Win
23%
+6.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
54%
+1.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
46%
-1.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.9pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Academica EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Covilha EU Bookmakers 26%
-28% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +15%
1.55/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/0.99
+2% / -35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +28%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
314 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Academica
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Sporting Covilha
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 4
10.11.2024 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 3-4 HT 2-1 Academica Academica POR3
11.08.2024 Academica Academica 1-1 HT 1-1 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
07.04.2024 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 1-1 HT 0-0 Academica Academica POR3
10.02.2024 Academica Academica 0-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
21.01.2024 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 3-2 HT 2-1 Academica Academica POR3
06.10.2023 Academica Academica 0-2 HT 0-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Academica
2-1
AWAY Sporting Covilha
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Academica vs Sporting Covilha
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Academica edged past Sporting Covilha 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Academica as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Academica had 51% of the ball to Sporting Covilha's 49%, shots finished 15-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Covilha led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Academica and 1.67 for Sporting Covilha.

What was the final score of Academica vs Sporting Covilha?

Academica 2-1 Sporting Covilha in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 01/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Academica vs Sporting Covilha?

Before kick-off our model rated a Academica win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Academica 44%, draw 26%, Sporting Covilha 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Academica) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Academica) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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