Monarcas Morelia 1-0 CA La Paz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 1 Mar 2026

📅01/03/2026 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.64
Draw
19%
3.8
Away
25%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
Over 2.5
62%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.6
No
40%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
30%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
22%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
56%
-0.8pp
19%
Draw
23%
-3.4pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+4.1pp
60%
BTTS Yes
58%
+2.1pp
40%
BTTS No
42%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monarcas Morelia EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY CA La Paz EU Bookmakers 25%
+1% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +4%
1.66/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/2.01
-8% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -19%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
380 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monarcas Morelia
3W-2D-1L
AWAY CA La Paz
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
6 Corners 0
20.09.2025 CA La Paz CA La Paz 3-0 HT 3-0 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
16.03.2025 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 4-1 HT 2-1 CA La Paz CA La Paz MEK2
28.09.2024 CA La Paz CA La Paz 0-1 HT 0-0 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
10.01.2024 CA La Paz CA La Paz 1-1 HT 0-0 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
11.09.2023 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 2-0 HT 1-0 CA La Paz CA La Paz MEK2
20.01.2023 CA La Paz CA La Paz 3-3 HT 2-1 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monarcas Morelia
1-0
AWAY CA La Paz
58% Ball Possession 42%
21 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Monarcas Morelia vs CA La Paz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monarcas Morelia squeezed past CA La Paz 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Monarcas Morelia as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Monarcas Morelia had 58% of the ball to CA La Paz's 42%, shots finished 21-8.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monarcas Morelia had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Monarcas Morelia and 1.33 for CA La Paz.

What was the final score of Monarcas Morelia vs CA La Paz?

Monarcas Morelia 1-0 CA La Paz in the Mexico - Primera A on 01/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monarcas Morelia vs CA La Paz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monarcas Morelia win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Monarcas Morelia 56%, draw 19%, CA La Paz 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monarcas Morelia) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Monarcas Morelia) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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