Penafiel vs Benfica II Prediction — Model Probabilities
Penafiel v Benfica II — Team-Based Signals
Penafiel vs Benfica II Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Penafiel 1-1 Benfica II — Actual Match Statistics
a 1-1 draw left Penafiel and Benfica II with a point apiece. Half-time: 0-1.
Our pre-match lean was Benfica II at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Neither goals market gave much away — over 2.5 sat at 48% and both teams to score at 54%. If anything the market was more convinced: the BTTS-no price stood at 1.88, roughly 53%.
On the day, Benfica II saw more of the ball, 51% to 49%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 1.98 to 1.56.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica II led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 0.67 a game for Penafiel against 1.17 for Benfica II.
Penafiel vs Benfica II Result & Final Score
Penafiel 1-1 Benfica II in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 01/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Penafiel vs Benfica II Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated an Benfica II win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Penafiel 33%, draw 25%, Benfica II 42%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Benfica II) went the other way.