Benfica II 0-2 Penafiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 5 Oct 2025

📅05/10/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.86
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
25%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.97
Over 2.5
50%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.47
2-3 Goals
34%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
3.16
6+ Goals
12%
11.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.47 — our 30% vs market 22.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
10%
2/2
8%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
50%
-1.6pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.6pp
24%
Away Win
24%
+0.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
47%
+3.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
53%
-3.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.6pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benfica II EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Penafiel EU Bookmakers 28%
-7% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +1%
1.67/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.42
+14% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -11%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
343 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.3 Crosses 15.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica II
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Penafiel
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.62 xG 1.00
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
390 Passes 236
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
17 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
11.05.2025 Benfica II Benfica II 1-1 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
29.12.2024 Penafiel Penafiel 1-1 HT 1-1 Benfica II Benfica II POR2
16.03.2024 Penafiel Penafiel 0-1 HT 0-0 Benfica II Benfica II POR2
04.11.2023 Benfica II Benfica II 1-0 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
30.04.2023 Penafiel Penafiel 0-3 HT 0-2 Benfica II Benfica II POR2
12.11.2022 Benfica II Benfica II 1-2 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica II
0-2
AWAY Penafiel
1.09 xG 3.58
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
329 Passes 164
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
25 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Benfica II vs Penafiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penafiel got the better of Benfica II 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Benfica II at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Benfica II had 62% of the ball to Penafiel's 38%, shots finished 17-12, expected goals 1.09 to 3.58.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica II had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Benfica II and 0.67 for Penafiel.

What was the final score of Benfica II vs Penafiel?

Benfica II 0-2 Penafiel in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benfica II vs Penafiel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica II win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Benfica II 48%, draw 27%, Penafiel 24%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Benfica II) ✗ BTTS Yes
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