Lilleström 2-3 Kristiansund BK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 1 Apr 2024

Lilleström
2-3 HT 0-1
Kristiansund BK
📅01/04/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Norway - Eliteserien – 2024

Lilleström vs Kristiansund BK Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.53
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
24%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.0
Over 2.5
54%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.85
No
49%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.72
2-3 Goals
37%
1.82
4-5 Goals
25%
3.27
6+ Goals
13%
11.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1.9
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
16.25
X/1
18%
3.73
X/2
11%
11.9
X/X
11%
5.63
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
22.7
2/2
7%
9.39
2/X
9%
17.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.7 — our 10% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
61%
-10.1pp
25%
Draw
22%
+3.0pp
24%
Away Win
17%
+7.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
46%
-0.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
54%
+0.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.3pp
49%
BTTS No
50%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lilleström v Kristiansund BK — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lilleström EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Kristiansund BK EU Bookmakers 20%
-1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +1%
1.93/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.80
+2% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +26%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
372 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 225 · 69%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
26.8 Crosses 16.2
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.7

Lilleström vs Kristiansund BK Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lilleström
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Kristiansund BK
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.23 xG 1.70
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
318 Passes 225
76% Pass Accuracy 70%
24 Box Touches 20
27 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.08.2022 Lilleström Lilleström 1-1 HT 1-0 Kristiansund BK Kristiansund BK NOR
03.07.2022 Kristiansund BK Kristiansund BK 1-3 HT 1-0 Lilleström Lilleström NOR
16.10.2021 Lilleström Lilleström 0-0 HT 0-0 Kristiansund BK Kristiansund BK NOR
30.05.2021 Kristiansund BK Kristiansund BK 1-0 HT 0-0 Lilleström Lilleström NOR
22.09.2019 Lilleström Lilleström 1-1 HT 1-0 Kristiansund BK Kristiansund BK NOR
05.07.2019 Kristiansund BK Kristiansund BK 5-2 HT 3-1 Lilleström Lilleström NOR

Lilleström 2-3 Kristiansund BK — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lilleström
2-3
AWAY Kristiansund BK
1.60 xG 0.82
70% Ball Possession 30%
12 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 2
533 Passes 184
85% Pass Accuracy 68%
32 Box Touches 12
42 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lilleström vs Kristiansund BK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kristiansund BK nicked a narrow win over Lilleström 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Lilleström at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Lilleström had 70% of the ball to Kristiansund BK's 30%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.60 to 0.82 — the balance of chances actually favoured Lilleström.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kristiansund BK led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Lilleström and 1.50 for Kristiansund BK.

What was the final score of Lilleström vs Kristiansund BK?

Lilleström 2-3 Kristiansund BK in the Norway - Eliteserien on 01/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lilleström vs Kristiansund BK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lilleström win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Lilleström 51%, draw 25%, Kristiansund BK 24%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lilleström) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lilleström) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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