Pisa 1-0 Frosinone — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 1 May 2025

📅01/05/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
21%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.78
Over 2.5
49%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.95
No
50%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.04
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.7
6+ Goals
8%
15.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
2.09
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.9
X/1
16%
4.29
X/2
8%
11.3
X/X
12%
4.65
2/1
6%
26.5
2/2
8%
9.59
2/X EV+ ✗
8%
16.2
Value flag · 2/X at 16.2 — our 8% vs market 3.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
57%
-4.0pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.9pp
21%
Away Win
18%
+3.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.3pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pisa EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Frosinone EU Bookmakers 21%
-1% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +4%
1.81/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.51
+8% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +74%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
357 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 76%
32.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
24.9 Crosses 15.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pisa
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Frosinone
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.98 xG 0.87
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
303 Passes 321
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.10.2024 Frosinone Frosinone 0-0 HT 0-0 Pisa Pisa İTB
12.08.2024 Frosinone Frosinone 0-3 HT 0-2 Pisa Pisa İTK
11.08.2023 Frosinone Frosinone 1-0 HT 1-0 Pisa Pisa İTK
06.05.2023 Pisa Pisa 1-3 HT 1-1 Frosinone Frosinone İTB
11.12.2022 Frosinone Frosinone 0-0 HT 0-0 Pisa Pisa İTB
06.05.2022 Frosinone Frosinone 1-2 HT 0-2 Pisa Pisa İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pisa
1-0
AWAY Frosinone
0.97 xG 0.32
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 0
3 Corners 3
345 Passes 425
83% Pass Accuracy 88%
22 Box Touches 11
18 Crosses 9
POST-MATCH Pisa vs Frosinone
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pisa squeezed past Frosinone 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Pisa as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Pisa had 47% of the ball to Frosinone's 53%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 0.97 to 0.32.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Pisa and 0.83 for Frosinone.

What was the final score of Pisa vs Frosinone?

Pisa 1-0 Frosinone in the Italy - Serie B on 01/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pisa vs Frosinone?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pisa win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Pisa 53%, draw 27%, Frosinone 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pisa), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Pisa) ✓ Under 2.5
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