Modena 2-3 Reggiana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 1 May 2025

📅01/05/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.96
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.62
Over 2.5
42%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.55
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
18%
4.44
6+ Goals
8%
23.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.55 — our 35% vs market 32.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.81
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
5%
13.5
X/1
19%
4.59
X/2
10%
7.8
X/X
17%
4.0
2/1
9%
29.0
2/2
14%
6.39
2/X
5%
14.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
47%
-3.3pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.8pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+4.1pp
58%
Under 2.5
58%
+0.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
42%
-0.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.4pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Modena EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Reggiana EU Bookmakers 28%
-2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
1.22/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.18
-7% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
348 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 75%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
19.5 Crosses 17.5
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Modena
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Reggiana
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.71 xG 1.14
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
294 Passes 384
77% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 21
12 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
14.12.2024 Reggiana Reggiana 0-1 HT 0-1 Modena Modena İTB
01.05.2024 Reggiana Reggiana 1-0 HT 0-0 Modena Modena İTB
02.12.2023 Modena Modena 2-1 HT 1-0 Reggiana Reggiana İTB
02.02.2022 Reggiana Reggiana 0-0 HT 0-0 Modena Modena İTC
06.09.2021 Modena Modena 1-1 HT 1-0 Reggiana Reggiana İTC
27.10.2019 Modena Modena 0-1 HT 0-1 Reggiana Reggiana İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Modena
2-3
AWAY Reggiana
0.58 xG 1.10
57% Ball Possession 43%
8 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 8
386 Passes 260
86% Pass Accuracy 79%
14 Box Touches 22
8 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Modena vs Reggiana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Reggiana edged past Modena 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Modena at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Modena had 57% of the ball to Reggiana's 43%, shots finished 8-14, expected goals 0.58 to 1.10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Modena and 0.67 for Reggiana.

What was the final score of Modena vs Reggiana?

Modena 2-3 Reggiana in the Italy - Serie B on 01/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Modena vs Reggiana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Modena win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Modena 44%, draw 28%, Reggiana 28%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Modena) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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