Palermo 1-2 Südtirol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 1 May 2025

Palermo
1-2 HT 1-0
Südtirol
📅01/05/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Italy - Serie B – 2024/2025

Palermo vs Südtirol Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.64
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
25%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.91
Over 2.5
51%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.45
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.34
6+ Goals
11%
12.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.45 — our 25% vs market 23.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.1
1/2
9%
35.0
1/X
9%
13.6
X/1
13%
4.37
X/2
9%
10.9
X/X
8%
5.03
2/1
12%
24.2
2/2
7%
8.78
2/X
6%
15.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
57%
-5.1pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.0pp
25%
Away Win
18%
+7.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.7pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Palermo v Südtirol — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palermo EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Südtirol EU Bookmakers 21%
-9% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / -4%
1.63/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.17
-24% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +23%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
377 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 76%
27.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
26.6 Crosses 17.7
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5

Palermo vs Südtirol Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palermo
3W-1D-1L
AWAY Südtirol
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
1.04 xG 0.72
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
405 Passes 295
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
25 Box Touches 16
29 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
30.09.2024 Südtirol Südtirol 1-3 HT 0-1 Palermo Palermo İTB
10.05.2024 Südtirol Südtirol 0-1 HT 0-0 Palermo Palermo İTB
01.10.2023 Palermo Palermo 2-1 HT 0-1 Südtirol Südtirol İTB
25.02.2023 Südtirol Südtirol 1-1 HT 1-0 Palermo Palermo İTB
01.10.2022 Palermo Palermo 0-1 HT 0-1 Südtirol Südtirol İTB

Palermo 1-2 Südtirol — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palermo
1-2
AWAY Südtirol
1.02 xG 1.87
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 3
308 Passes 182
79% Pass Accuracy 67%
22 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Palermo vs Südtirol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Südtirol edged past Palermo 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Palermo at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Palermo had 59% of the ball to Südtirol's 41%, shots finished 17-15, expected goals 1.02 to 1.87.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Palermo had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Palermo and 0.80 for Südtirol.

What was the final score of Palermo vs Südtirol?

Palermo 1-2 Südtirol in the Italy - Serie B on 01/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palermo vs Südtirol?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palermo win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Palermo 52%, draw 23%, Südtirol 25%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Palermo), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Palermo) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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