Spezia 2-0 Salernitana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 1 May 2025

📅01/05/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
18%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.82
No
56%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.2
2-3 Goals
37%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
3.54
6+ Goals
11%
14.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.2 — our 30% vs market 25.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.25
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.05
X/1 EV+ ✗
28%
4.49
X/2
6%
10.15
X/X
12%
4.66
2/1
11%
25.0
2/2
7%
8.17
2/X
7%
14.85
Value flag · X/1 at 4.49 — our 28% vs market 17.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
54%
+2.9pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.4pp
18%
Away Win
20%
-1.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.8pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spezia EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Salernitana EU Bookmakers 22%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -19%
1.96/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.42
-6% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / +7%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
358 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 73%
33.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
29.7 Crosses 17.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spezia
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Salernitana
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.49 xG 1.30
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
292 Passes 329
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.10.2024 Salernitana Salernitana 0-2 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
12.08.2024 Salernitana Salernitana 3-3 HT 0-2 Spezia Spezia İTK
02.04.2023 Spezia Spezia 1-1 HT 0-1 Salernitana Salernitana İTA
22.10.2022 Salernitana Salernitana 1-0 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTA
07.02.2022 Salernitana Salernitana 2-2 HT 2-2 Spezia Spezia İTA
16.10.2021 Spezia Spezia 2-1 HT 0-1 Salernitana Salernitana İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spezia
2-0
AWAY Salernitana
2.06 xG 0.72
50% Ball Possession 50%
19 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 7
263 Passes 275
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
31 Box Touches 12
29 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Spezia vs Salernitana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spezia saw off Salernitana 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Spezia as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, Spezia had 50% of the ball to Salernitana's 50%, shots finished 19-8, expected goals 2.06 to 0.72.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Spezia had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Spezia and 1.33 for Salernitana.

What was the final score of Spezia vs Salernitana?

Spezia 2-0 Salernitana in the Italy - Serie B on 01/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spezia vs Salernitana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spezia win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Spezia 57%, draw 25%, Salernitana 18%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Spezia), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Spezia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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