FC Ararat-Armenia 3-1 Zimbru — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 1 Aug 2024

📅01/08/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.42
Draw
28%
4.34
Away
18%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.1
Over 2.5
44%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.98
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.12
6+ Goals
10%
10.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.98 — our 29% vs market 20.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
21%
X/2
4%
X/X
12%
2/1
11%
2/2
9%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
67%
-13.2pp
29%
Draw
20%
+8.0pp
18%
Away Win
13%
+5.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
44%
+12.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
56%
-12.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.4pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Ararat-Armenia EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Zimbru EU Bookmakers 15%
-26% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
0.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/5.00
-100% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -55%
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
404 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 6.0
Crosses 9.0
Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Ararat-Armenia
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Zimbru
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 3
25.07.2024 Zimbru Zimbru 0-3 HT 0-1 FC Ararat-Armenia FC Ararat-Armenia AVKL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Ararat-Armenia
3-1
AWAY Zimbru
45% Ball Possession 55%
20 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FC Ararat-Armenia vs Zimbru
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Ararat-Armenia saw off Zimbru 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had FC Ararat-Armenia as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, FC Ararat-Armenia had 45% of the ball to Zimbru's 55%, shots finished 20-10.

What was the final score of FC Ararat-Armenia vs Zimbru?

FC Ararat-Armenia 3-1 Zimbru in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 01/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Ararat-Armenia vs Zimbru?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Ararat-Armenia win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split FC Ararat-Armenia 54%, draw 29%, Zimbru 18%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Ararat-Armenia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Ararat-Armenia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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