Progres Niedercorn 1-0 Djurgarden — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 1 Aug 2024

📅01/08/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.75
Draw
29%
3.72
Away
37%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
54%
2.0
Over
46%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1
27%
3.75
2-3
43%
1.82
4-5
21%
3.25
6+
9%
11.3
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.75 — our 27% vs market 21.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
20%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Away Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
34%
Home Win
23%
+11.1pp
29%
Draw
23%
+5.6pp
37%
Away Win
54%
-16.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
46%
+7.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
54%
-7.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.6pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Progres Niedercorn The Market 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Djurgarden The Market 58%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
270 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 415 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Progres Niedercorn
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Djurgarden
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 4
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 2
6 Yellow Cards 4
25.07.2024 Djurgarden Djurgarden 3-0 HT 2-0 Progres Niedercorn Progres Niedercorn AVKL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Progres Niedercorn
1-0
AWAY Djurgarden
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Progres Niedercorn vs Djurgarden
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Progres Niedercorn nicked a narrow win over Djurgarden 1-0.

Our pre-match split (34% / 29% / 37%) promised a tight game; Progres Niedercorn found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Progres Niedercorn had 59% of the ball to Djurgarden's 41%, shots finished 13-4.

What was the final score of Progres Niedercorn vs Djurgarden?

Progres Niedercorn 1-0 Djurgarden in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 01/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Progres Niedercorn vs Djurgarden?

Before kick-off our model rated an Djurgarden win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Progres Niedercorn 34%, draw 29%, Djurgarden 37%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Djurgarden) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Djurgarden) ✓ Under 2.5
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