Swarovski Tirol 1-1 Sturm Graz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 1 Aug 2026

📅01/08/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.75
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
44%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.97
Over 2.5
55%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.7
No
46%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.53
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
26%
3.18
6+ Goals
14%
11.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
6.69
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
22.65
1/X
6%
14.3
X/1
11%
8.81
X/2
15%
4.46
X/X
14%
5.0
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
22%
2.32
2/X
6%
13.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.65 — our 7% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
23%
+7.4pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.7pp
44%
Away Win
52%
-8.0pp
45%
Under 2.5
47%
-2.0pp
55%
Over 2.5
53%
+2.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
55%
-0.5pp
46%
BTTS No
45%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Swarovski Tirol EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 56%
+9% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +21%
1.40/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.70/1.23
+16% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +46% / +10%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
253 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 78%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.4
16.2 Crosses 17.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Swarovski Tirol
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Sturm Graz
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.30 xG 1.48
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
285 Passes 320
71% Pass Accuracy 76%
24 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
14.02.2026 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 1-0 HT 0-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
03.12.2025 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-3 HT 1-0 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol AVU
07.12.2024 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 0-3 HT 0-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
31.08.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 4-2 HT 1-2 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol AVU
25.02.2024 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 0-2 HT 0-2 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
01.10.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-0 HT 1-0 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Swarovski Tirol
1-1
AWAY Sturm Graz
0.87 xG 2.32
8 Total Shots 15
1 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 6
212 Passes 303
17 Box Touches 36
8 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Swarovski Tirol vs Sturm Graz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Swarovski Tirol and Sturm Graz shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Sturm Graz at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, shots finished 8-15, expected goals 0.87 to 2.32.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Swarovski Tirol and 1.83 for Sturm Graz.

What was the final score of Swarovski Tirol vs Sturm Graz?

Swarovski Tirol 1-1 Sturm Graz in the Austria - Bundesliga on 01/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Swarovski Tirol vs Sturm Graz?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Swarovski Tirol 30%, draw 26%, Sturm Graz 44%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sturm Graz), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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