Racing Club Montevideo 1-4 CA Penarol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 1 Sep 2025

📅01/09/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
3.87
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
54%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.62
Over 2.5
47%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.06
No
50%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
6%
X/2
25%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
22%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
22%
+0.4pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.7pp
54%
Away Win
52%
+2.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
58%
-5.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
42%
+5.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
44%
+5.2pp
50%
BTTS No
56%
-5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Racing Club Montevideo EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 56%
-17% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +8%
0.70/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/0.88
-22% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -14%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
225 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 381 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Racing Club Montevideo
1W-3D-2L
AWAY CA Penarol
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 3
10.03.2025 CA Penarol CA Penarol 0-2 HT 0-1 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo URU
01.10.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 0-0 HT 0-0 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo URU
17.06.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 1-1 HT 0-0 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo URU
17.03.2024 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo 1-2 HT 0-2 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
03.12.2023 CA Penarol CA Penarol 1-1 HT 0-0 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo URU
09.05.2023 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo 0-2 HT 0-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Racing Club Montevideo
1-4
AWAY CA Penarol
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 2
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Racing Club Montevideo vs CA Penarol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Penarol ran out comfortable winners over Racing Club Montevideo 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had CA Penarol as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Racing Club Montevideo had 49% of the ball to CA Penarol's 51%, shots finished 13-15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CA Penarol led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Racing Club Montevideo and 1.00 for CA Penarol.

What was the final score of Racing Club Montevideo vs CA Penarol?

Racing Club Montevideo 1-4 CA Penarol in the Uruguay - Premier League on 01/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Racing Club Montevideo vs CA Penarol?

Before kick-off our model rated an CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Racing Club Montevideo 23%, draw 24%, CA Penarol 54%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CA Penarol) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✗ Under 2.5
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