Al Gharafa 4-2 Al Ain — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC Sampiyonlar League, 1 Oct 2024

📅01/10/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
3.08
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
40%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
2.59
Over Pick
53%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.43
No
50%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1
25%
5.78
2-3
38%
2.04
4-5
25%
2.61
6+
12%
6.02
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.66
1/2
9%
20.65
1/X
8%
12.9
X/1
14%
7.65
X/2
16%
4.94
X/X
7%
6.07
2/1
8%
29.5
2/2
16%
2.56
2/X
8%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
29%
+6.9pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.1pp
40%
Away Win
47%
-6.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
35%
+12.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
65%
-12.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
66%
-15.8pp
50%
BTTS No
34%
+15.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Gharafa EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Ain EU Bookmakers 51%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +40% / +40%
1.02/1.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.91
-18% / +54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +97% / -36%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
309 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 82%
18.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.2
16.6 Crosses 17.9
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Gharafa
4-2
AWAY Al Ain
2.72 xG 1.58
36% Ball Possession 64%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 7
229 Passes 474
76% Pass Accuracy 86%
18 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Al Gharafa vs Al Ain
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Gharafa saw off Al Ain 4-2. Half-time: 1-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (36% / 24% / 40%) promised a tight game; Al Gharafa found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Al Gharafa had 36% of the ball to Al Ain's 64%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 2.72 to 1.58.

What was the final score of Al Gharafa vs Al Ain?

Al Gharafa 4-2 Al Ain in the AFC Sampiyonlar League on 01/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Gharafa vs Al Ain?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Ain win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Al Gharafa 36%, draw 24%, Al Ain 40%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Al Ain) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Al Ain) ✓ Over 2.5
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