Kawasaki Frontale 0-1 Gwangju — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC Sampiyonlar League, 1 Oct 2024

📅01/10/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.72
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
29%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
2.0
Over
50%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
53%
1.73
No
47%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1
27%
3.79
2-3
38%
1.83
4-5
24%
3.22
6+
11%
11.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.2
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.45
X/1
15%
4.06
X/2
13%
9.3
X/X
12%
5.35
2/1
9%
22.3
2/2
10%
6.94
2/X
6%
15.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.3 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
55%
-9.5pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.5pp
29%
Away Win
21%
+8.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.0pp
47%
BTTS No
46%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kawasaki Frontale EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Gwangju EU Bookmakers 24%
-22% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-5% / -61% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
396 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 71%
31.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
18.4 Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kawasaki Frontale
0-1
AWAY Gwangju
2.85 xG 1.24
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
453 Passes 430
86% Pass Accuracy 86%
28 Box Touches 21
32 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kawasaki Frontale vs Gwangju
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gwangju squeezed past Kawasaki Frontale 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Kawasaki Frontale at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Kawasaki Frontale had 52% of the ball to Gwangju's 48%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 2.85 to 1.24 — on chances, Kawasaki Frontale could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of Kawasaki Frontale vs Gwangju?

Kawasaki Frontale 0-1 Gwangju in the AFC Sampiyonlar League on 01/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kawasaki Frontale vs Gwangju?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kawasaki Frontale win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Kawasaki Frontale 45%, draw 25%, Gwangju 29%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Kawasaki Frontale) ✗ BTTS Yes
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