Central Coast Mariners 1-2 Buriram United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC Sampiyonlar League, 1 Oct 2024

📅01/10/2024 · 🕒11:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.46
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
35%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
1.91
Over Pick
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1
26%
3.44
2-3
39%
1.79
4-5
24%
3.46
6+
11%
13.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.67
1/2
5%
28.5
1/X
8%
12.85
X/1
12%
5.55
X/2
9%
5.6
X/X
10%
4.64
2/1
9%
28.5
2/2
21%
3.72
2/X
7%
12.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.5 — our 9% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 50%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
37%
+3.2pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.7pp
35%
Away Win
36%
-0.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.5pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Central Coast Mariners EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Buriram United EU Bookmakers 39%
-51% / -51% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -33% / -33%
1.00/3.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.89
-31% / -52% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / -27%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
333 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
Crosses 22.7
Yellow Cards 2.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Central Coast Mariners
1-2
AWAY Buriram United
0.13 xG 1.35
42% Ball Possession 58%
3 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 5
0 Corners 6
381 Passes 534
84% Pass Accuracy 87%
5 Box Touches 23
5 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Central Coast Mariners vs Buriram United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Buriram United nicked a narrow win over Central Coast Mariners 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 24% / 35% — and on the day Buriram United made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Central Coast Mariners had 42% of the ball to Buriram United's 58%, shots finished 3-12, expected goals 0.13 to 1.35 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Buriram United's control.

What was the final score of Central Coast Mariners vs Buriram United?

Central Coast Mariners 1-2 Buriram United in the AFC Sampiyonlar League on 01/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Central Coast Mariners vs Buriram United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Central Coast Mariners win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Central Coast Mariners 40%, draw 24%, Buriram United 35%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Central Coast Mariners)
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