Krylya Sovetov 3-3 FC Sochi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Cup, 1 Oct 2025

📅01/10/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.02
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
34%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.67
Over 2.5
53%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.9
No
44%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.55
2-3 Goals
37%
1.71
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
4.11
6+ Goals
12%
20.65
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.11 — our 26% vs market 17.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
18%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
45%
-3.2pp
24%
Draw
28%
-3.6pp
34%
Away Win
27%
+6.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
56%
-9.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
44%
+9.4pp
56%
BTTS Yes
49%
+7.7pp
44%
BTTS No
51%
-7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Krylya Sovetov EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Sochi EU Bookmakers 31%
-35% / -35% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
2.60/3.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.55
+51% / -73% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +42% / +7%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
329 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Krylya Sovetov
5W-1D-0L
AWAY FC Sochi
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.13 xG 0.95
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
301 Passes 413
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
14.09.2025 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov 2-0 HT 0-0 FC Sochi FC Sochi RUS
13.08.2025 FC Sochi FC Sochi 1-1 HT 0-0 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov RUK
02.12.2023 FC Sochi FC Sochi 0-2 HT 0-0 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov RUS
23.09.2023 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov 2-1 HT 2-0 FC Sochi FC Sochi RUS
09.04.2023 FC Sochi FC Sochi 1-2 HT 0-0 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov RUS
16.10.2022 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov 2-0 HT 2-0 FC Sochi FC Sochi RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Krylya Sovetov
3-3
AWAY FC Sochi
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
11 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Krylya Sovetov vs FC Sochi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Krylya Sovetov and FC Sochi couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Krylya Sovetov at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Krylya Sovetov had 50% of the ball to FC Sochi's 50%, shots finished 13-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Krylya Sovetov had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Krylya Sovetov and 0.50 for FC Sochi.

What was the final score of Krylya Sovetov vs FC Sochi?

Krylya Sovetov 3-3 FC Sochi in the Russia - Cup on 01/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Krylya Sovetov vs FC Sochi?

Before kick-off our model rated a Krylya Sovetov win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Krylya Sovetov 42%, draw 24%, FC Sochi 34%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Krylya Sovetov) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Krylya Sovetov) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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