Etoile Carouge 2-1 Aarau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 1 Nov 2024

📅01/11/2024 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.25
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
37%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.21
Over 2.5
54%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.53
No
42%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.4
2-3 Goals
37%
1.88
4-5 Goals
28%
2.94
6+ Goals
13%
8.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
14%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
41%
-2.8pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.4pp
37%
Away Win
34%
+3.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.8pp
58%
BTTS Yes
61%
-3.6pp
42%
BTTS No
39%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Etoile Carouge EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Aarau EU Bookmakers 37%
+27% / +27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +3%
1.97/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.72/1.66
+46% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -25%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
305 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 386 · 79%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.3
9.8 Crosses 13.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Etoile Carouge
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Aarau
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.81 xG 0.84
70% Ball Possession 30%
17 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 1
487 Passes 159
86% Pass Accuracy 67%
24 Box Touches 9
16 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 4
24.08.2024 Aarau Aarau 1-0 HT 1-0 Etoile Carouge Etoile Carouge İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Etoile Carouge
2-1
AWAY Aarau
0.21 xG 2.88
48% Ball Possession 52%
6 Total Shots 21
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 7
355 Passes 381
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
15 Box Touches 44
10 Crosses 19
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Etoile Carouge vs Aarau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Etoile Carouge edged past Aarau 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 25% / 37%) promised a tight game; Etoile Carouge found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Etoile Carouge had 48% of the ball to Aarau's 52%, shots finished 6-21, expected goals 0.21 to 2.88 — on chances, Aarau could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of Etoile Carouge vs Aarau?

Etoile Carouge 2-1 Aarau in the Switzerland Challenge League on 01/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Etoile Carouge vs Aarau?

Before kick-off our model rated a Etoile Carouge win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Etoile Carouge 38%, draw 25%, Aarau 37%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Etoile Carouge), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Etoile Carouge) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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