Ajax 1-1 Heerenveen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 1 Nov 2025

Ajax
1-1 HT 1-0
Heerenveen
📅01/11/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2025/2026

Ajax vs Heerenveen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
65%
1.53
Draw
19%
4.19
Away
16%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
34%
2.51
Over 2.5
66%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.56
No
39%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
5.31
2-3 Goals
39%
1.99
4-5 Goals
29%
2.6
6+ Goals
14%
6.14
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.87
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
5%
15.05
X/1
25%
4.29
X/2
5%
11.6
X/X
11%
7.04
2/1 EV+ ✗
14%
18.95
2/2
6%
8.38
2/X
4%
16.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.95 — our 14% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
61%
+3.6pp
19%
Draw
21%
-1.4pp
16%
Away Win
18%
-2.1pp
34%
Under 2.5
36%
-2.1pp
66%
Over 2.5
64%
+2.1pp
61%
BTTS Yes
60%
+0.8pp
39%
BTTS No
40%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ajax v Heerenveen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajax EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Heerenveen EU Bookmakers 21%
-2% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -12%
2.06/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.45
-11% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / -6%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
419 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 77%
34.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.6
20.4 Crosses 15.7
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.7

Ajax vs Heerenveen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajax
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Heerenveen
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.23 xG 1.04
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
472 Passes 333
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
34 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.01.2025 Heerenveen Heerenveen 0-2 HT 0-1 Ajax Ajax HOL
11.08.2024 Ajax Ajax 1-0 HT 1-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
11.02.2024 Heerenveen Heerenveen 3-2 HT 2-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
05.11.2023 Ajax Ajax 4-1 HT 2-1 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
12.03.2023 Heerenveen Heerenveen 2-4 HT 1-3 Ajax Ajax HOL
10.09.2022 Ajax Ajax 5-0 HT 2-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL

Ajax 1-1 Heerenveen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax
1-1
AWAY Heerenveen
0.89 xG 1.06
57% Ball Possession 43%
9 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 4
449 Passes 326
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
30 Box Touches 32
16 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ajax vs Heerenveen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax and Heerenveen couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Ajax at 65% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. On goals, both teams to score (61%) landed while over 2.5 goals (66%) missed.

On the day, Ajax had 57% of the ball to Heerenveen's 43%, shots finished 9-17, expected goals 0.89 to 1.06.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Ajax and 1.00 for Heerenveen.

What was the final score of Ajax vs Heerenveen?

Ajax 1-1 Heerenveen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 01/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajax vs Heerenveen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Ajax 65%, draw 19%, Heerenveen 16%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Ajax), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ajax) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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