Heerenveen 0-2 Ajax — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 19 Jan 2025

📅19/01/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
4.48
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
47%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.18
Over 2.5
50%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.7
No
53%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.1
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
2.91
6+ Goals
11%
8.72
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.1 — our 26% vs market 18.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
8.1
1/2
8%
20.8
1/X
7%
16.1
X/1
10%
10.6
X/2
16%
4.22
X/X
11%
5.93
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
23%
2.0
2/X
8%
14.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
19%
+7.5pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.8pp
47%
Away Win
58%
-10.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
42%
+8.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
58%
-8.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
55%
-7.9pp
53%
BTTS No
45%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heerenveen EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax EU Bookmakers 62%
+3% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +9%
1.43/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.11/1.29
+37% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -16%
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
267 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 422 · 82%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 36.1
15.4 Crosses 17.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heerenveen
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Ajax
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.50
0.96 xG 2.46
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 8
305 Passes 493
80% Pass Accuracy 87%
18 Box Touches 38
15 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
11.08.2024 Ajax Ajax 1-0 HT 1-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
11.02.2024 Heerenveen Heerenveen 3-2 HT 2-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
05.11.2023 Ajax Ajax 4-1 HT 2-1 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
12.03.2023 Heerenveen Heerenveen 2-4 HT 1-3 Ajax Ajax HOL
10.09.2022 Ajax Ajax 5-0 HT 2-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
11.05.2022 Ajax Ajax 5-0 HT 3-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heerenveen
0-2
AWAY Ajax
0.60 xG 2.72
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 21
2 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 5
487 Passes 343
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 34
12 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Heerenveen vs Ajax
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax got the better of Heerenveen 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Ajax as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Heerenveen had 58% of the ball to Ajax's 42%, shots finished 11-21, expected goals 0.60 to 2.72.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Heerenveen and 3.50 for Ajax.

What was the final score of Heerenveen vs Ajax?

Heerenveen 0-2 Ajax in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 19/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heerenveen vs Ajax?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Heerenveen 27%, draw 26%, Ajax 47%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ajax), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ajax) ✓ BTTS No
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