NEC Nijmegen 4-1 Fortuna Sittard — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 19 Jan 2025

📅19/01/2025 · 🕒18:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.66
Draw
32%
3.64
Away
22%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.0
Over 2.5
46%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.75
No
44%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.63
2-3 Goals
43%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.14
6+ Goals
10%
10.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.13
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
13.75
X/1
18%
4.29
X/2
8%
9.85
X/X
14%
5.3
2/1
6%
22.1
2/2
9%
7.69
2/X
7%
15.4
Value flag · 1/X at 13.75 — our 10% vs market 4.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
56%
-9.4pp
32%
Draw
24%
+7.7pp
22%
Away Win
20%
+1.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
46%
+7.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
54%
-7.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
53%
+2.8pp
44%
BTTS No
47%
-2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortuna Sittard EU Bookmakers 23%
-9% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -4%
1.78/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.76
-6% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -6%
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
355 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 74%
27.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
26.3 Crosses 16.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NEC Nijmegen
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Fortuna Sittard
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.71 xG 1.49
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
402 Passes 292
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
26 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
31.08.2024 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 0-3 HT 0-2 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
02.04.2024 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 1-1 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
15.12.2023 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 4-1 HT 2-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
28.05.2023 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 1-1 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
19.10.2022 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 3-2 HT 1-1 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOK
10.09.2022 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-1 HT 0-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NEC Nijmegen
4-1
AWAY Fortuna Sittard
1.00 xG 0.25
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 1
379 Passes 442
86% Pass Accuracy 86%
18 Box Touches 9
27 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NEC Nijmegen cruised past Fortuna Sittard 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had NEC Nijmegen as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, NEC Nijmegen had 47% of the ball to Fortuna Sittard's 53%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 1.00 to 0.25.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, NEC Nijmegen had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.00 for Fortuna Sittard.

What was the final score of NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?

NEC Nijmegen 4-1 Fortuna Sittard in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 19/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?

Before kick-off our model rated a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split NEC Nijmegen 47%, draw 32%, Fortuna Sittard 22%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NEC Nijmegen), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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