Cuiaba 1-2 Bahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 1 Dec 2024

Cuiaba
1-2 HT 1-1
Bahia
📅01/12/2024 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.69
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
45%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.67
Over 2.5
44%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.95
No
57%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.78
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
4.31
6+ Goals
8%
21.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.78 — our 34% vs market 30.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
6.38
1/2
5%
28.0
1/X
7%
14.9
X/1
7%
7.9
X/2
18%
4.24
X/X
12%
4.24
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
23%
2.65
2/X
5%
14.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
24%
+6.7pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.4pp
45%
Away Win
49%
-3.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.4pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.5pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cuiaba EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Bahia EU Bookmakers 52%
-6% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -21%
1.16/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/1.52
-8% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / -61%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
273 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 80%
16.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.6
19.2 Crosses 26.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cuiaba
2W-3D-0L
AWAY Bahia
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 0.60
1.16 xG 0.77
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 8
278 Passes 455
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.07.2024 Bahia Bahia 1-2 HT 0-1 Cuiaba Cuiaba BR1
10.11.2023 Bahia Bahia 0-3 HT 0-1 Cuiaba Cuiaba BR1
08.07.2023 Cuiaba Cuiaba 1-1 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
22.11.2021 Bahia Bahia 0-0 HT 0-0 Cuiaba Cuiaba BR1
08.08.2021 Cuiaba Cuiaba 1-1 HT 1-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cuiaba
1-2
AWAY Bahia
1.63 xG 1.13
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
350 Passes 473
86% Pass Accuracy 90%
16 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cuiaba vs Bahia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bahia nicked a narrow win over Cuiaba 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Bahia as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cuiaba had 44% of the ball to Bahia's 56%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 1.63 to 1.13 — on chances, Cuiaba could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Cuiaba had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Cuiaba and 0.60 for Bahia.

What was the final score of Cuiaba vs Bahia?

Cuiaba 1-2 Bahia in the Brazil - Serie A on 01/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cuiaba vs Bahia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Cuiaba 31%, draw 24%, Bahia 45%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bahia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bahia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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