Gremio 2-1 Sao Paulo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 1 Dec 2024

Gremio
2-1 HT 2-0
Sao Paulo
📅01/12/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Gremio vs Sao Paulo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.19
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
31%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.67
Over 2.5
37%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.85
No
57%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.76
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
16%
4.35
6+ Goals
7%
21.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.76 — our 35% vs market 30.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.31
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
12.8
X/1
17%
5.0
X/2
13%
6.57
X/X
15%
3.92
2/1
5%
30.5
2/2
11%
4.91
2/X
5%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-2.2pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.1pp
31%
Away Win
29%
+2.4pp
63%
Under 2.5
56%
+6.8pp
37%
Over 2.5
44%
-6.8pp
43%
BTTS Yes
50%
-7.2pp
57%
BTTS No
50%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Gremio v Sao Paulo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gremio EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 32%
+10% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +6%
1.48/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.04
+28% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +16%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
285 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 82%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
17.0 Crosses 17.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.8

Gremio vs Sao Paulo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gremio
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Sao Paulo
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.23 xG 1.29
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
307 Passes 424
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
18.07.2024 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-0 HT 1-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
22.10.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 3-0 HT 1-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
04.06.2023 Gremio Gremio 2-1 HT 2-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
03.12.2021 Gremio Gremio 3-0 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
15.08.2021 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-1 HT 1-1 Gremio Gremio BR1
15.02.2021 Gremio Gremio 1-2 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1

Gremio 2-1 Sao Paulo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gremio
2-1
AWAY Sao Paulo
1.81 xG 0.26
39% Ball Possession 61%
16 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 6
249 Passes 451
81% Pass Accuracy 90%
36 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gremio vs Sao Paulo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gremio squeezed past Sao Paulo 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 29% / 31%) promised a tight game; Gremio found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gremio had 39% of the ball to Sao Paulo's 61%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 1.81 to 0.26 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Gremio's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Paulo led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Gremio and 1.50 for Sao Paulo.

What was the final score of Gremio vs Sao Paulo?

Gremio 2-1 Sao Paulo in the Brazil - Serie A on 01/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gremio vs Sao Paulo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gremio win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Gremio 40%, draw 29%, Sao Paulo 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gremio) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gremio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR1 More Brazil - Serie A
1 Dec 2024
01:30 Criciuma vs Corinthians Analysis →
01:30 Cuiaba vs Bahia Analysis →
03:30 Vasco da Gama vs Atletico Goianiense Analysis →
22:00 Flamengo vs Internacional Analysis →