Dordrecht 1-0 Groningen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 2 Feb 2024

📅02/02/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.5
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
44%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.38
Over 2.5
55%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.5
No
46%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
5.0
2-3 Goals
39%
1.94
4-5 Goals
25%
2.74
6+ Goals
11%
7.18
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
5.63
1/2
10%
20.9
1/X
9%
13.2
X/1
8%
8.57
X/2
13%
4.56
X/X
8%
5.69
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
34.0
2/2
21%
2.33
2/X
7%
12.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.0 — our 8% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
25%
+7.5pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.0pp
44%
Away Win
51%
-7.5pp
45%
Under 2.5
38%
+6.7pp
55%
Over 2.5
62%
-6.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
62%
-8.0pp
46%
BTTS No
38%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dordrecht EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Groningen EU Bookmakers 56%
+1% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +32% / +32%
1.28/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.18/0.28
+18% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +65% /
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
348 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 77%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.4
16.3 Crosses 14.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 0.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dordrecht
0W-2D-2L
AWAY Groningen
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.04 xG 1.75
44% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 6
236 Passes 353
70% Pass Accuracy 77%
14 Box Touches 30
8 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.11.2023 Groningen Groningen 2-2 HT 1-1 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL2
19.10.2022 Dordrecht Dordrecht 0-3 HT 0-1 Groningen Groningen HOK
08.03.2015 Groningen Groningen 2-0 HT 1-0 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL
20.12.2014 Dordrecht Dordrecht 1-1 HT 0-1 Groningen Groningen HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dordrecht
1-0
AWAY Groningen
0.82 xG 0.71
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 8
257 Passes 294
66% Pass Accuracy 70%
11 Box Touches 17
12 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Dordrecht vs Groningen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dordrecht edged past Groningen 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Groningen at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Dordrecht had 48% of the ball to Groningen's 52%, shots finished 9-9, expected goals 0.82 to 0.71.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Groningen led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Dordrecht and 2.00 for Groningen.

What was the final score of Dordrecht vs Groningen?

Dordrecht 1-0 Groningen in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 02/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dordrecht vs Groningen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Groningen win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Dordrecht 32%, draw 24%, Groningen 44%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Groningen) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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